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Sunday 26 July 2015

リアリティチェック - グローバル·ファイナンス悲哀の後ろ石油·エネルギー不足、&詳細情報


What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common


We all know one thing that Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico have in common–severe financial problems. There is something else that they have in common–a high proportion of their energy use is from oil. Figure 1 shows the ratio of oil use to energy use for selected European countries in 2006.

Figure 1. Oil as a percentage of total energy consumption in 2006, based on June 2015 Energy Information data. (Inverted order from chart originally shown.)

Greece and Cyprus are at the bottom of this chart. The other “PIIGS” countries (Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Portugal) are immediately above Greece. Puerto Rico is not European so is not on Figure 1, but it if were shown on this chart, it would appear between Greece and Cyprus–its oil as a percentage of its energy consumption was 98.4% in 2006. The year 2006 was chosen because it was before the big crash of 2008. The percentages are bit lower now, but the relationship is very similar now.



In my last several crude oil updates, I showed that the “smart money” was betting against crude oil’s rebound that started in March, while the “dumb money” was the main driving force behind it. I have been skeptical of oil’s rebound due to persistently high inventories and the still-sizable long position held by speculators even after last year’s oil crash. Light sweet crude oil sank 7.6 percent during last week’s China-induced commodities rout and because active oil rigs rose for a second straight week after months of declines.

BrentCrude

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil broke down from its wedge patternthat I showed in late-June, and is now sitting just above its key $50 per barrel support level. If WTI crude breaks decisively below its $50 support level, a resumption of the 2014 oil bear market is quite possible. WTI crude may be forming a flag pattern that could indicate further declines if broken to the downside.

Oil Imports Have Energy Poor Greece In A Stranglehold



After several years, several months, several weeks and several days of crisis, it looks like things are about to come to a head for Greece and its banks. It becomes easier to understand exactly what GREXIT may mean for the Greek people. What happens when the banks and the government completely run out of money?
Greece has some indigenous coal production (lignite) but no oil or gas to speak of which means that all oil and gas are imported (Figure 1). This is linked to a structural trade deficit that contributes to the country’s dependency on debt. If Greece runs out of Euros, will it be able to buy oil and gas on the international markets? Greece held 90 days of oil stocks in 2010 [2]. Once that is gone then the tourist industry may collapse?

Carl Icahn Believes “There Really Is A Bubble Brewing”


Billionaire investor Carl Icahn spoke with FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Neil Cavuto and Trish Regan about the economy, saying “I believe that there really is a bubble brewing.” He went on to say that we are in “unchartered territory,” with historically low interest rates, and “a market that’s going up artificially,” which “could be very destructive to our markets and our economy.” When asked about what the Federal Reserve should do, Icahn said, “stop worrying what the markets will do,” and “start raising rates right now.” He went on to say that the “Fed is really pandering to a lot of these guys on Wall Street that they really shouldn’t be pandering to.” Regarding whether he’d take the role of Treasury Secretary, as Donald Trump suggested,” Icahn said, “I guess I would not. I sleep too late.”


The Greek Parliament is seen during a protest in Athens last night.
Two days of high-stakes negotiations between the finance ministers of the currency bloc resulted in a four-page document that included controversial German elements leaked on Saturday. Those measures included Greece leaving the euro temporarily by taking a “time-out” from the currency bloc if it refuses terms for talks on the new bailout or, in the event of agreement, that Greece sets aside €50bn worth of assets as collateral for new loans and for eventual privatisation. Both passages, however, did not enjoy a consensus among eurozone leaders.

4_jpgWhat is not an illusion is the extreme trouble many EU countries are in. Besides Greece, Spain and Italy are deep in debt. Smith contends, “Spain’s debt is a trillion euros. Italy is over a trillion euros in debt. We are talking fairly serious money here.”

China’s market is also shaped by the heavy hand of the government, which makes decisions about what companies can list shares, when to promote stock rallies and, now, how to intervene when prices plummet. The government, in other words, views the market as a policy instrument, a mechanism to fulfill its political and economic goals. The result can be a volatile market that swings from boom to bust.








Did You Hear?

Thursday 9 July 2015

大きな市場の警告


投資家の洞察コメント

我々は完璧な金融の嵐の真っ只中にあるほとんど疑いがあり、その歴史意志おそらく "すべてのグローバル市場のクラッシュの母」として1日レコード。金利は、それが再び通常のマントラた異なるworld.This頃金融·不動産市場に持続不可能な気泡を作成した、あまりにも長い間、あまりにも低かったです。
それはあることはありません。それができなくなります決して。それは、最後のことができませんでした!

数学的には、誰もが金利の平均回帰がこれまでに発生し、それによって50%以上どこでもグローバルな資産バブル値を崩壊することを否定しました。何だと思いますか?誰かがその最後のチューリップを買って、我々は今、その現在の値の数学的な結果の完全な矛先と復帰を経験しています。

さらに、多くの国は、水、資本や食糧不足のいずれかを引き起こす債務苦境と物理経済や気候変動問題に直面しています。あなたは食料、水、エネルギーのない経済を実行することはできません。何とかノーベル賞もアイビーリーグの経済学者はこれを理解することはありませんすることができます。

FEDチャートは、金融市場の天候は非常に悪いです教えてください。ウォール街は、非常に心配になっており、今日の世界の見出しは、過去と最近の歴史のすべての偉大な株式、債券および経済的メルトダウンを反映し他の場所で日本、中国、オーストラリア、の値で自由落下の物語を伝えます。最後に数日から数週間の価格の急落 - 私たちは大きな愚か者を使い果たしているため。需要と供給の本当の法則。

沈没物事がはるかに悪化しようとしていることを感じていることを持っている場合。あなたが心配する必要はありません一つのことは、あなただけではありません。

そして、その古い格言を覚えて - ときに、その上で、そのオーバー!

 続きを読みます

Saturday 4 July 2015

"The Vatican Insider" :The Pope And His Boss Issue Climate Warning







Popes Warning On Climate Change 


Stirs Controversy 





THE  POPE'S 2015 GLOBAL WARMING SUMMIT

 THE VATICAN INSIDER



On the day he was elected pope, Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio of

 Argentina stood before a line of his fellow cardinals to 

receive their blessings.


"Don't forget the poor," whispered his Brazilian friend

, Cardinal Claudio Hummes, as the two embraced in the

 Sistine Chapel. And with that, Bergoglio knew the papal

 name he would choose.











VATICAN

TRAILER

Below



"Immediately I thought of St. Francis of Assisi," he later said

. "A man of poverty, a man who loved and protected creation."


To the delight of many around the world - and the

 consternation of many others - Francis on Thursday will

 honor his namesake with an encyclical asserting that modern

 climate change is real, mostly man-made, and of compelling 

moral concern because global warming is an affliction

 wrought by wealthy nations with disproportionate impact on

the poor. 








JOIN US!








THE  POPE'S 2015 GLOBAL WARMING SUMMIT



Earth In Trouble